Trump Increases Pressure on Iran

As expected, President Donald Trump has intensified his maximum-pressure sanctions campaign against the Iranian regime. Trump expressed concerns that the Biden administration had relaxed the U.S. stance toward the oppressive theocratic regime, thereby allowing it to boost its oil production revenues. According to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Tehran’s oil exports generated $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion in 2022. Based on OPEC data, Iran’s oil production in 2024 was estimated to be at its highest level since 2018.

President Trump has stated that he is open to political negotiations with the Iranian leadership, where they would need to commit to strict terms for nuclear decommissioning and cease support for terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. However, as Tehran seeks to re-establish its crumbling dominance in the region, it seems unlikely they will agree to such terms. If they refuse, Trump has indicated he would support military action by Israel to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It’s well-known that Trump is hesitant to deploy ground troops in Iran, fearing such a move would provoke a nationalist backlash and prove counter-productive, given the public’s support for regime change. Therefore, a targeted airstrike by Israel on Iran’s covert nuclear facilities, utilizing deep-penetrating bombs supplied by the U.S., seems the most probable strategy in Trump’s Middle Eastern policy and would likely find broad support in Israel.

At a press conference last week, Trump asserted that the U.S. has the right to block the sale of Iranian oil to any nation. He mentioned that while he remains open to talks about a new nuclear agreement, he would “obliterate” Iran if the regime attempted to target him—a likely reference to recent FBI arrests of an Iranian hit squad allegedly sent to assassinate Trump during the presidential election campaign. Though his Iranian strategy has been overshadowed by controversial statements regarding Gaza, Trump’s meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington has solidified his status as Israel’s primary ally. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu is willing to permit Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

In a frantic response to Trump’s renewed sanctions strategy, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated last week, “If the main issue is ensuring that Iran does not pursue nuclear weapons, this is achievable and not a difficult issue.” Other leading figures within the Iranian regime have made similar remarks, hinting at a willingness to reset relations with Trump and renegotiate the nuclear deal. However, such hopes were dashed when the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared, “I’m brave enough to say death to America.” While chants of “Death to America” have been common among the regime’s paid supporters, this marked the first time the Supreme Leader himself had expressed it, indicating the impact of Trump’s new ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions campaign. Although China remains Iran’s largest oil customer, the stringent new sanctions strategy is expected to cripple Iran’s economy, already challenged by soaring inflation and a plummeting currency. The regime’s ability to sidestep punitive sanctions during Joe Biden’s presidency will be abruptly curtailed as the Trump administration aims to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero.

In January, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Iran is “pressing the gas pedal” on enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels. The regime already possesses a stockpile enriched to 60% purity, just shy of weapons-grade, and could further enrich it to 90%, though constructing a sophisticated warhead for a ballistic missile could take another 12 to 18 months. Some U.S. officials fear that in a bid to assert their influence in Middle Eastern politics, the Iranian regime might resort to using outdated technology to produce a crude nuclear device—too large to serve as a warhead, but sufficient to declare themselves a nuclear power.

In a February 5th article, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated, “As the past four years have shown, enriching and enabling the malign Iranian regime only leads to war and terror. As Trump demonstrated, the best way to avoid these outcomes is through massive and effective sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which enable the regime to support its dysfunctional economy, fund terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, and inflict pain and suffering on the Iranian people.” Pompeo concluded, “Now is the time not only for a return to maximum pressure with support for the organized opposition within Iran but also for the White House to fully support our ally Israel in its mission to ensure Iran never achieves its goal of creating a nuclear weapon.”

Pompeo’s mention of the ‘organized opposition’ refers to resistance groups like the People’s Mojahedin of Iran/Mujahedin-e Khalq (PMOI/MEK), which have grown considerably in recent years and are now conducting bold operations against the regime’s infrastructure and communications across Iran. Western leaders, such as Joe Biden, should learn from past mistakes that appeasement only emboldens Iran’s regime to spread its warmongering and terror abroad while further suppressing its own population. President Trump could benefit from inviting Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the charismatic leader of the main democratic opposition movement, to Washington, D.C. Her ten-point plan for a future democratic, secular republic after the regime’s overthrow promises to restore freedom, peace, justice, and security for Iran’s 95 million citizens, ending the nuclear threat and the spread of war and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond.