SCOTLAND SHOULD BE WARY OF NIGEL FARAGE’S REFORM PARTY

Hard-right populist politicians are winning elections across Europe and America. Donald Trump swept the board in the US presidential elections, securing complete control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Viktor Orbán, the right-wing prime minister of Hungary, goes from strength to strength. The National Rally (formerly the National Front) in France, led by Marine Le Pen and the far-right Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party led by Giorgia Meloni, are dominating EU politics. Despite gaining 4 million votes, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party won only 5 seats in the UK General Election; nevertheless, they overtook Labour in a recent nationwide poll. Right-wing populism is surging and with elections to Holyrood on the horizon for May 2026, there is a real fear that Farage and Reform may upset the Scottish applecart. Keir Starmer’s plummeting popularity and Labour’s ham-fisted performance in government, has seriously undermined Anas Sarwar’s hopes of sweeping Labour to victory in 2026 and left the door open for Reform.

Now there are rumours that Elon Musk may donate up to $100 million (£80 million) to Reform. Although he denies it, Musk has refused to rule out a major donation. He could circumvent laws that prohibit foreign donations by making the payment through his UK-registered X (Twitter) organisation. Musk is a close friend of both Donald Trump and Nigel Farage, and a donation of this magnitude would transform the political landscape in Britain, causing serious damage to the Tories and consequential impacts on Labour and the SNP. Farage claims that he is about to create a political revolution in Britain. With that kind of money, he could. Farage is a disruptor and by taking votes from all the parties in the Holyrood elections he could be about to disrupt politics in Scotland.

After fourteen years in power, with five prime ministers in eight years, including ‘strong and stable’ Theresa May, ‘get Brexit done’ Boris and Liz Truss, the PM whose premiership was outlived by a lettuce, the Conservative Party suffered its worst election defeat in history. It now has very little money and only 121 MPs and its new leader – Kemi Badenoch – is struggling to be heard. In Scotland, the hapless Douglas Ross has been replaced as leader of the Scottish Conservatives by Russell Findlay, a former journalist, who when reporting on Glasgow gangs for the Sun newspaper survived a doorstep acid attack by a gangland hitman. He may find the acidity of Farage’s Reform minions more difficult to survive.

Mr Findlay has had a meteoric rise in Scottish Tory ranks, having only been elected as a list MSP for the West of Scotland in 2021. He was elected Tory leader in September this year and got off to a flying start, appointing one of Scotland’s most successful businessmen – Alasdair Locke – as Party Chair and former minister Lord (Malcolm) Offord as Party Treasurer. Both have wide business experience and have endorsed Mr Findlay’s credentials to, in his words: “present positive new policies to fire up economic growth, create opportunities for workers and businesses, reward aspiration with lower taxes, improve school standards and increase home ownership”. Both will be invaluable advisors to the new Party boss and will have the incompetent SNP government in their sights. After seventeen dismal years in power, John Swinney and co should be an easy target for the Scottish Tories, but Farage may have other ideas.

The key drivers behind the surge in populism are economic anxiety and inequality, with many people feeling left behind. There is also a perception among some groups that globalisation has eroded national sovereignty and cultural identities. Right-wing populists like Trump and Farage capitalise on these sentiments by promising to prioritise the nation-state and its traditional values. In England, increased migration and demographic changes have led to societal tensions, enabling right-wing populist parties like Reform to focus on anti-immigration policies and emphasize security, sovereignty, and cultural homogeneity. Many voters feel that their cultural identities and national traditions are under threat from multiculturalism and political correctness, allowing right-wing populists like Farage to leverage these sentiments by advocating a return to traditional values. There is also widespread distrust in political elites and institutions, seen as out of touch with ordinary citizens’ concerns. Right-wing populists position themselves as outsiders or challengers to the status quo, promising to reform or dismantle established systems.

In an attempt to challenge Nigel Farage’s Reform, Russell Findlay has pledged the Scottish Conservatives “will work hard to earn the trust of the public by telling it straight and only making promises we can keep”. He says: “We are ready to stand up for everyone who feels disillusioned with the state of politics and the fringe obsessions of the Scottish Parliament”. Meanwhile in England, Kemi Badenoch has made clamping down on illegal immigration a big part of her strategy. Someone should tell her that using Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) to shout at Keir Starmer about illegal immigration is simply handing a gift to Nigel Farage, who sees it as his key issue.  Her hard-right rhetoric seeks to appeal to voters who might drift to Reform, but is in fact driving people towards Farage’s party.

At a packed-out Scottish conference for Reform in Perth in November, Richard Tice MP told journalists that his party would field a “meaningful” number of candidates in the May 2026 Holyrood elections and that he was “optimistic” that Reform would be a “key player” in the next Holyrood parliament. Farage has since confirmed that his party will have a candidate in every seat.  Reform has already shown how it can strip away support from smaller parties like the Lib-Dems and the Greens. But a well-financed Reform Party could also plunder votes from the SNP, Labour and the Conservatives. For Kemi Badenoch and Russell Findlay, the best way to counter Reform is to point out that the party is entirely run from the top by Nigel Farage; it has a top-heavy structure with no deep political roots and has a serious lack of talent in its ranks. Farage, as a rich, opportunistic, city slicker, doesn’t understand or share the concerns of his potential voters. Scotland should not allow ‘The man who broke Britain’ to do the same to Scotland.