DODGING THE INDEPENDENCE BULLET

 As Scotland went to the polls on 18 September 2014, the flag-waving separatists accused the unionists of portraying Scots as “too wee, too poor and too stupid” to sustain an independent nation. It is a great irony that it is now the SNP itself that is too wee, too poor and too stupid even to mount Indyref 2. Seventeen years of SNP incompetence resulted in a comprehensive public rejection of Scottish Nationalism at the 2024 General Election, with the party being reduced from 49 MPs at Westminster to a paltry 9. Their spectacular demise mirrors what would have happened to Scotland had the YES vote won in 2014.

Scotland would have certainly been confronted with tougher economic conditions, heightened public austerity, slower growth and increased borrowing. Scotland’s reliance on North Sea oil revenues would have led to major revenue challenges. The transition to renewable energy would have impacted this sector, with SNP ministers effectively abandoning further exploitation of North Sea oil and gas.

Scotland’s economy is also supported by industries such as financial services, tourism, and whisky exports. The performance of these major sectors would have been drastically impacted by independence and the erection of barriers with our main trading partner – England, where we do 63% of business, worth more than three times the value of our trade with the EU. Scotland would also have inherited a portion of the UK’s debt and been forced to determine fiscal policies to manage deficits and public spending, potentially facing severe austerity measures or the need for revenue generation through increased taxes.

The great panacea for all our ills, trumpeted by the SNP, was to break the Brexit deadlock by re-joining the EU.  But ‘Sterlingisation’, or keeping the pound, would mean the Bank of England would have full control of Scotland’s monetary policy. Not having our own currency and relying instead on the English pound would also prohibit an independent Scotland from joining the EU. According to the most recent Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures, our current GDP deficit is 10.4% compared to the UK’s 5.2%. The EU does not welcome new Member States who run a GDP deficit above 3%. With our annual public sector expenditure at £111.2 billion, while total public sector revenue from taxation is only £88.5 billion, Scotland relies on a fiscal transfer from the Treasury in London of £22.7 billion to make up the shortfall. Where would that have come from after independence?

Establishing new institutions for economic governance, regulatory frameworks and international diplomacy, would demand substantial investment and competent leadership, neither of which are abundant in SNP government circles. Dodging the independence bullet in 2014 has saved Scotland’s economy from catastrophic disaster.