TRUMP’S GREENLAND FANTASY MUST BE STOPPED — EUROPE HAS THE MEANS TO DO IT

Donald Trump’s revived obsession with annexing Greenland would be laughable were it not so dangerous. The notion that the United States might bully, bribe or browbeat a NATO ally into surrendering sovereign territory belongs to the age of gunboat diplomacy, not the 21st century. Yet Trump has never concealed his contempt for international law, alliances or democratic norms. His Greenland fantasy risks becoming a test case for whether Europe is prepared to defend its own sovereignty or surrender it piece by piece.

Let us be absolutely clear, Greenland is not for sale. It is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, protected by international law and NATO’s collective security guarantee. Any attempt by the United States to coerce Denmark into relinquishing Greenland, economically, politically or militarily, would constitute a flagrant violation of the UN Charter and a body blow to the post-war international order painstakingly constructed to prevent precisely this sort of predatory behaviour.

For too long, European leaders have treated Trump’s outbursts as eccentric theatrics, best managed with indulgent smiles and quiet diplomacy. That approach is no longer sufficient. Trump has shown us exactly who he is. He respects only strength, leverage and consequences. If Europe wishes to deter a reckless US president from destabilising the Arctic and shattering NATO unity, it must be prepared to deploy all three.

Fortunately, the European Union now possesses a formidable weapon that most Americans, and many Europeans, scarcely understand, the so-called Trade Bazooka.

Formally known as the Anti-Coercion Instrument, this EU regulation, which entered into force in late 2023, allows Brussels to retaliate swiftly and decisively against any third country that seeks to extract political concessions from an EU member state through economic pressure. It was drafted with China’s bullying tactics in mind, but its scope is universal. The United States is not exempt. If Washington were to threaten tariffs, withdraw investment or otherwise seek to coerce Denmark over Greenland, the legal threshold for triggering the Trade Bazooka would be met. The consequences would be severe and immediate.

The EU could impose punitive tariffs on politically sensitive US exports like agriculture, automobiles, aircraft and technology, calibrated to hit Trump’s electoral base hardest. It could exclude US companies from lucrative EU public procurement contracts, restrict access to financial and digital services and even suspend intellectual property protections. Crucially, these measures can be adopted by qualified majority voting. No single state can veto action. The days of paralysis are over. This is not theoretical posturing. The EU is the United States’ largest export market and its most powerful regulatory counterpart. A concerted European response would send shockwaves through US markets and boardrooms alike. Trump understands tariffs. He understands market pain. What he neither understands nor respects is weakness masquerading as diplomacy.

There is also a wider lesson here, one that Scotland, in particular, should not ignore. If a powerful state can openly contemplate annexing the territory of a smaller ally without facing decisive consequences, then the entire framework of collective security on which small nations depend begins to erode. An independent Scotland, stripped of the UK’s defence umbrella and possessing only a threadbare military capability, would be uniquely exposed in such a world.

Scotland’s geography, commanding the North Atlantic approaches, hosting critical undersea cables, energy infrastructure and strategic maritime routes, makes it valuable, and therefore vulnerable. Yet the nationalist movement that champions independence has shown little interest in hard power, defence spending or deterrence. The SNP’s hostility to nuclear deterrence, its aversion to serious military investment and its vague assumptions about automatic protection from NATO amount to strategic negligence. NATO is not a free insurance policy. It rests on credible capability and collective resolve.

If Trump’s Greenland fantasy were allowed to succeed, or even to proceed unchecked, it would signal to authoritarian and opportunistic powers alike that borders are once again negotiable, sovereignty conditional and small states fair game. In such an environment, a demilitarised or weakly defended Scotland would be relying on hope rather than deterrence. Hope is not a defence policy.

The United Kingdom, despite its self-inflicted exile from EU decision-making, still has a vital role to play. Britain must stand shoulder to shoulder with Denmark and the EU, not skulk on the sidelines in the hope of currying favour with a mercurial US president. London should use NATO councils to force an unequivocal reaffirmation of Danish sovereignty and make clear that any coercive move against a NATO ally would poison transatlantic relations for a generation.

The UK also retains formidable, if understated, financial leverage. The City of London remains a critical hub for global capital flows, insurance markets and dollar-denominated transactions. Coordinated regulatory pressure, even at the margins, would not go unnoticed in Washington. Above all, Europe must shed the illusion that Trump can be managed through flattery or appeasement. History teaches us where that road leads. If Greenland were to fall victim to coercion, it would not be the end of the story but the beginning. Today it is Greenland, tomorrow it could be the Baltic states, the Arctic seabed, or the security of smaller nations whose defences have been deliberately run down.

This is about far more than a vast, icy island. It is about whether the rule of law or the law of the jungle will govern international relations. Europe has the legal authority, the economic firepower and the moral justification to draw a firm line. What is required now is political will. Trump’s Greenland fantasy must be confronted early, decisively and collectively. If Europe hesitates, it invites escalation. If it stands united, armed with the Trade Bazooka and the resolve to use it, the message to Washington will be unmistakable; sovereignty is not negotiable, allies are not prey, and Europe will not be intimidated. Strength deters aggression. Weakness invites it. The choice could not be clearer.